Electing the Next UN Secretary-General: A Final Test for Multilateralism

Opinion by Jean-Pierre Kempeneers and Sam Muller• - Pubished first in Pass Blue - September 21, 2025

The world has entered one of its most perilous periods since 1945. Wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan are only the most visible flashpoints of a deeper trend: we have the highest number (over 100) of active state conflicts since 1946. Violence and fragmentation is accelerating. The number of refugees and internally displaced persons is at an all-time high, totaling more than 123 million. Meanwhile, humanity faces climate breakdown, biodiversity collapse, pandemic risk and entrenched inequality.

At the very moment when international collaboration and fundamental rules and principles are most needed, the multilateral system is under siege. Funding cuts from the United States and Europe — while other countries are not stepping into this void — are undermining the United Nations. Russia and other regional powers openly contest UN values and norms. UN peacekeeping is being sidelined.

This context makes the election of the UN’s 10th secretary-general, in 2026, for the 2027-2031 term, one of the most consequential in its history. The process soon begins formally, during the opening of the new General Assembly.

Whether the secretary-general becomes a weak follower of decline or a courageous catalyst for reform will determine the future of multilateralism itself.

Selecting the UN boss

The procedure is simple. Governments lobby and the Security Council recommends a name to the General Assembly, which votes and decides. To get there, the Council conducts secret straw polls to test support. In that process, any of the five permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia or the US — can veto. So the real power rests with the deeply divided Council, which in September 2026 will be made up of the P5 plus five elected countries heading into their second term: Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama and Somalia. (Algeria, Guyana, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and South Korea all end their term on Dec. 31). As of Jan. 1, 2026, the new elected members are Bahrain, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Latvia and Liberia.

By unwritten convention, the secretary-general post rotates by region. After Guterres’s two terms from the Western Europe bloc, it is now the turn of Latin America and the Caribbean. Yet, even that informal agreement could be contested, as Africa could submit a candidate and Eastern Europe emphasizes that it has never held the UN leader post.

The high stakes

This election will be pivotal for the future. One is a world where might prevails, powerful states act with impunity, high-tech monopolies shape economies and international rules fade into irrelevance.

The other is an imperfect but cooperative order with basic rules in which global challenges are tackled collectively; territorial integrity, the laws of war and basic human rights are upheld; and markets retain a workable degree of fairness and predictability. The overwhelming majority of states, businesses and citizens rely on this future to prosper. Only a few countries can sustain defense spending above five percent of GDP.

Addressing conflict, climate change, pandemics, transnational crime and migration require collaboration across borders. Stability, dignity and prosperity cannot be guaranteed by individual states alone. Businesses cannot thrive without the predictability of enforceable contracts, access to dispute settlement, secure property rights and fair competition internationally.

The brawl ahead

For the powerful few countries who view multilateralism as a burden on their sovereignty and freedom to act, the rational choice is a weak secretary-general. However, it is in the clear interests of the majority to have somebody who can help redesign multilateral cooperation.

Wanted: a candidate from Latin America who speaks credibly to the global South while commanding respect in Washington, Beijing, Brussels and Moscow and other regional powers; a leader with moral clarity and diplomatic skills. Someone unafraid to tell uncomfortable truths, yet who is pragmatic, inventive and constructive enough to engage with power. A key player who knows what is at stake in the difficult task of redesigning multilateralism for a multipolar, multicrisis-ridden, fast-changing world. A person who can shape changes that go far beyond the UN80 reforms that are now being rolled out.

In a world riven by polarization, division and conflict, where facts are manipulated on an unprecedented scale, in which fundamental freedoms are threatened and autocracy is rising, where many UN member states struggle to provide basic levels of stability and well-being to their people, it is essential to find the right candidate.

The choice in 2026 is not only about who leads the UN. It is about whether multilateralism is reinvented or fades, with nothing viable to replace it. The next 12 months will be critical for a new rules-based world order. Most UN member states, together with global business and civil society, must come together to avoid a widespread disaster.

Ahmad Fawzi, a former UN spokesperson, contributed to this essay.